Falling trees. Shaping contingency strategies.

After a short lull (the media even rallied with a few 'green shoots' stories), another cascade of financial awfulness. It seems unlikely that the car makers will all survive without massive subsidy - which governments appear unwilling (probably wisely) to provide.

Detroit's problems are multi-fold. Cars are expensive capital investments, not an appealing idea for worried consumers. And most car purchases in markets such as the UK are really discretionary - product performance means that the old one probably still works (mine just sailed its 7year MOT). On top of that the big 3 made some truly terrible strategic choices, such as too much emphasis on Chelsea Tractors, and being distracted by vanity brand acquisitions (Jaguar, Volvo...) when they should have been more worried about their own failing product development capabilities. Not to mention the lack of stakeholder insight demonstrated by the infamous private jet trip to Washington. (The day which surely sealed Richard Wagoner's fate?)

But not all of their problems are unique. For example, other industries depend on purchase finance loans ('buy now pay later') to close the sale - and these are now both less appealing and less easily provided. It can be little more fun right now selling sofas than it is selling the apartments to put them in.

And there are plenty of other ways consumer spending behaviour is changing - as any fashion retailer will tell.

It is not even necessary to be a failing company. Being a supplier to, or customer of, one may be enough. Zavvi were undone by their dependency on Woolworth's logistics. Bad news for sheet metal suppliers today is bad news for the customers of sheet metal suppliers tomorrow.

It isn't always possible to avoid falling trees. But a little contingency planning could mitigate some risks - such as reducing dependency weaknesses through diversified supply chains. It could even create opportunities. Where might gaps in the canopy open near you? What are your competitors' weaknesses? And how could you exploit them?